PredictionX Videos: Energy & Climate

The Future of Energy and the Earth -Dan Kammen

1. The most surprising bit of information I learned was about the idea of overconfidence when it comes to predictions from modeling. As Dan said in the video, the people who modeled were 50% overconfident in their predictions. This was due to their investment in the models and their desire to be right in their predictions. Using this info, they started taking model forecasts and doubling their confidence intervals. I find this very interesting because, despite the massive investment of time and energy that goes into creating perfect models, the human idea of overconfidence still creeps in and impacts the overall forecasts. It is a good reminder that we need to remain humble in our predictions and not get too carried away by certain models. https://canvas.harvard.edu/courses/84859/pages/modern-predictions-and-ai

Climate Change -Gina McCarthy

1. An unasked question I would've asked is that if renewable energy is the best way forward in order to solve climate issues while also improving society, how do we get from where we are now to a fully sustainable future? I would ask this because it's clear that renewable energy is needed and it's definitely good for society however, we still need to accomplish a lot before it could support our entire energy needs. We still have issues with the storage and transportation of clean energy, we need a drastic increase in lithium and other rare earth metal production and overall we still have a ton of infrastructure to build-out. Knowing of all these issues, how can we quickly transfer to sustainable energy while not limiting our energy demands. I think that this is an incredibly important question that will be crucial to our plan forward with renewables. https://canvas.harvard.edu/courses/84859/pages/modern-predictions-and-ai