The Future of the Future

Professor Goodman's interview of Dan Gilbert relates to my final project in a few ways. My project involves the creation of my own model to predict the outcome of NBA playoff games. Part of my process includes deciding which factors to give weight to in my model. Things like home court advantage a

I chose to listen to Professor Goodman’s interview with Ned Hall because in a way, the concept of truth is critical to my topic, which is predicting jury verdicts (which the image I chose from A Few Good Men is a joking nod too — ultimately, our judicial process is about finding the truth — regardl

Link to interview: Although this interview does not completely relate to my topic, it discusses certain concepts that are relevant to the discounted cash flow model, which is the topic of my final project. However, the most important concept discussed in this interview is that of time, and more conc

I watched the interview of Professor Augustin Rayo on Prediction & Philosophy, as I thought it might provide some insights into my final project, which is about horse racing. The interview tackles the predictability of human behavior, which is essential to understanding the pari-mutuel betting syst

https://www.labxchange.org/library/pathway/lx-pathway:53ffe9d1-bc3b-4730-abb3-d95f5ab5f954/items/lb:HarvardX:405c4c5c:lx_simulation:1/53447?source=%2Flibrary%2Fclusters%2Flx-cluster%3AModernPrediction&fullscreen=true The most surprising part of the interview with Stuart Firestein was the discussio

One key takeaway from the climate discussion interview is that we as a society can be extremely proactive in encouraging entrepreneurs to find technological solutions to many of the issues that we face. Because it is not being properly incentivized, we are not seeing the same advances in the realm o

https://www.labxchange.org/library/pathway/lx-pathway:825945a0-367c-45dc-82b7-3d160c6e6f7a/items/lx-pb:825945a0-367c-45dc-82b7-3d160c6e6f7a:lx_simulation:5ad35586?source=%2Flibrary%2Fclusters%2Flx-cluster%3AModernPrediction&fullscreen=true From a personal perspective, the most important takeaway I

I think that the most interesting aspect of this video that will affect my own future is Firestein’s framing of the relationship between scientific uncertainty about the future and wanting to know more about the future. He mentioned the topic of biologists conducting experiments in hopes of getting

I decided to watch the interview with Dan Gilbert on the psychology of predictions. Here is the link to the video: https://www.labxchange.org/library/pathway/lx-pathway:53ffe9d1-bc3b-4730-abb3-d95f5ab5f954/items/lx-pb:53ffe9d1-bc3b-4730-abb3-d95f5ab5f954:lx_simulation:5e3f229f?source=%2Flibrary%2Fcl

https://www.labxchange.org/library/pathway/lx-pathway:53ffe9d1-bc3b-4730-abb3-d95f5ab5f954/items/lx-pb:53ffe9d1-bc3b-4730-abb3-d95f5ab5f954:lx_simulation:5e3f229f?source=%2Flibrary%2Fclusters%2Flx-cluster%3AModernPrediction&fullscreen=true An unasked question that I would ask about is if there is p

While this was indirectly mentioned in the Dan Gilbert interview on prediction and psychology, one thing that stuck out for me was the surface-level, inverse relationship between belief in the uncertainty of a predictive model versus belief in the predictive model itself. A great example of this is

Extra/useful Source: https://gking.harvard.edu/files/gking/files/pan1900011_rev.pdf Explain (In a paragraph) how the interview relates to your chosen final project topic. (20 points) This interview touched on a number of topics that are pertinent to my final project. Foremost, Rayo spoke quite

Link to Interview In Professor Firestein's interview, he talks about how it is necessary to constantly revise predictive systems. This sentiment is echoed by many fans of college football (CFB). Many believe that the College Football Playoff (CFP) Committee has inconsistently applied its criteria i

In a year from now, I think the most piece of information I will remember the most about this interview is the conversation between the undergraduate and Ben Schneiderman about detecting difference between AI and human work. Instead of thinking about how to find the difference between works, we need

Rayo believes that the Universe is deterministic and that everything (given enough inputs) could be predicted with extreme accuracy. This pertains to my project considering the prediction of outcomes in war, because the original article I read for the class online about predicting the outcomes of wa

https://www.labxchange.org/library/pathway/lx-pathway:825945a0-367c-45dc-82b7-3d160c6e6f7a/items/lx-pb:825945a0-367c-45dc-82b7-3d160c6e6f7a:lx_simulation:6e9eaf62?source=%2Flibrary%2Fclusters%2Flx-cluster%3AModernPrediction&fullscreen=true • What I will remember most about this interview in a year

I chose to watch the interview on uncertainty in science with Stuart Firestein. Here is the link to the video: https://www.labxchange.org/library/pathway/lx-pathway:53ffe9d1-bc3b-4730-abb3-d95f5ab5f954/items/lx-pb:53ffe9d1-bc3b-4730-abb3-d95f5ab5f954:lx_simulation:9041b2ca?source=%2Flibrary%2Fcluste

I think that, a year from now, I will personally remember the detail that Firestein mentioned about how textbooks do not operate the way that the scientific field works which is counter-intuitive to a lot of courses I take here that are based on teachings in old textbooks. For instance, I take econo

A question I would ask is "why does thinking about the future bring humans pleasure?" In one part of the interview, Gilbert said that while it was not always the case, humans tend to think about the future simply for the sake of it. We do it for pleasure and entertainment. I find it interesting that

One question I would have asked Prof. Gilbert was about why some people tend to care a lot about the accuracy of predictions and why others do not. I think the example of the Turkish coffee grounds was interesting in that people just wanted to talk about things—but is this a useful exercise for them

I watched Dan Gilbert’s interview on Prediction & Psychology, to help inform my final project which will be on the predictive systems of Online Dating. Gilbert raised some interesting psychological points that link to the data that is used in these matching algorithms used by dating sites. He mentio

I found it very surprising that Professor Agustin Rayo found humans so easily predictable. He began by stating given facts that are predictable for human beings but applied that logic to predicting a human's locations at all times which Professor Goodman and the students seemed to think was a stretc

I watched the interview of Professor Augustin Rayo on Prediction & Philosophy, as I thought it might provide some insights into my final project, which is about horse racing. The interview tackles the predictability of human behavior, which is essential to understanding the pari-mutuel betting syste

I think that the most surprising piece of information in this discussion was the comment about trusting predictions. When we talk about predictions, sometimes we have to choose different models of what we believe or trust, or sources of information that we tend to rely on more. But, it could, in fac

Theory-driven approaches: Attribution Methodology: Wallom discusses the use of attribution methodology to determine the impact of climate change on phenomena like bark beetle infestations. This methodology is based on creating hypotheses (e.g., "This event has been made more likely because of climat

What do you, personally, think you will remember most about this interview a year from now? Lord Rees says at one point in the interview, "the sad thing is the gap between the way the world could be and the way it is." This emphasizes the urgent need for the application of science and technology to

What do you, personally, think you will remember most about this interview a year from now?  (10 points) Bearing in mind all the conversations about the limitations/opacity of AI this year, what will likely stick with me the most is the cautionary tale about the limitations of machine learning mod

What do you, personally, think you will remember most about this interview a year from now?   I believe that the most striking message from this interview is the immense responsibility that scientists and mathematicians have when communicating statistical information to the public. The discussion su

In this interview, the main topic of discussion surrounded human psychology and predictions. Professor Gilbert had talked about various topics regarding prediction-making from a psychology perspective, from topics on a human's perspective on the past and future as well as a human's ability to imagin

The part that I found most interesting about the interview with David Laibson was the breadth of the capacity of machine learning. I think it's very interesting how machine learning could potentially be used to predict the stock market later. The stock market itself is based on predictions and tons