This article shares the prediction of Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs Chief Economist, that AI will “turbocharge the US economy”. Egan, the author of this article, strengthens the validity and trustworthiness of Hatzius’ prediction by framing his AI hypothesis in the context of several of his previous successful predictions, from ‘08, to the 2022 soft landing. As a reader, we are more likely to believe one’s prediction if they have made successful ones in the past, particularly in times where theirs was the dissenting opinion.
Egan also selects quotes from Hatzius that highlight his conviction in his thesis, such as
“that is very, very likely”, and to a reader, the salience effect of the repetition of ‘very’ increases the likelihood of trusting his hypothesis, without learning anything really new about the backing of his idea.
The article also notes areas in which Hatzius is unclear as to what to predict exactly, such as “which jobs will be destroyed and which ones will be saved”. This more general prediction is then framed as unclear in the short term, but something that he will be “much more confident” about in the longer term, highlighting differences in near and longer term predictions, and although there is uncertainty, trust is still afforded to the prediction because of the generalizability of the longer run trends.