Bayesian Theory in Juries

Title: Bayesian Theory in Juries


Reputability statement: The Guardian is a well established British newspaper, which even has a reputation for quality investagative journalism,  such as Edward Snowden's documents. 

Comments: This article details how Bayesian reasoning applies to juries and court decisions, especially in instances of qualifying if a decision is "beyond reasonable doubt." Bayesian theory is especially helpful when considering the likelyhood of an outcome based on evidence. Some mathemeticians consider it a .definition of logical thinking, because Bayesian reasoning is something we do naturally. In a murder case at trail, this can lend or take away significance of a certain piece of evidence, based on how likely that evidence is to have happened. 

There is a debate occuring in English courts about the legality of using Bayes theorem in the courtroom. Many judges say that because much of the data surrounding the circumstances involved in Bayes theorem is unavailable, the theorem cannot be used to inform decisions in the courtroom. As stated in the article, "You could argue that virtually every case with circumstantial evidence is ripe for being improved by Bayesian arguments," therefore, this decision could potentially affect most criminal cases.